Silicon — GPUs, TPUs, ASICs

Fable 5 · data curated through July 2026

Layer 1 of five in the Five Layer AI Cake. 18 companies, 22 events.

What this layer is

Raw compute. Who makes the metal that every layer above depends on.

Layer 1 of five. Nothing sits below it — this is the floor of the stack, and the floor eats first. Above it sits Cloud & Compute, which pays it.

18 of the atlas's 103 companies capture value here. 8 of them also capture value on another layer, which makes them vertical integrators; 10 compete on this layer alone.

Vertical integrators on this layer (8)

These companies span two or more layers, so they hold margin at every floor they occupy.

CompanyFoundedAlso onInfluenceWhy it is here
Google Cloud2008Cloud & Compute · Foundation Models · Applications9/10TPUs + Gemini + Workspace. Only full-stack vertical.
Groq2016Cloud & Compute6/10LPU — record-setting inference latency.
Huawei (HiSilicon)1991Cloud & Compute6/10Ascend 910C/D — China's domestic GPU answer to NVIDIA under export controls.
Qualcomm1985Tooling & Orchestration6/10Bought Modular to fight CUDA with software. Silicon without a dev stack does not sell.
Tesla (Optimus, FSD)2003Applications6/10Dojo chips + Optimus + FSD — an AI company hiding in a carmaker.
Cerebras2016Cloud & Compute5/10Wafer-scale engine. Training alt to NVIDIA.
Intel1968Cloud & Compute5/10Gaudi chips, foundry ambitions; fell behind in AI.
SambaNova2017Cloud & Compute3/10Reconfigurable dataflow architecture.

Pure plays on this layer (10)

CompanyFoundedAlso onInfluenceWhy it is here
NVIDIA1993—10/10GPU monopoly on AI training. CUDA moat.
TSMC1987—9/10Fabs every leading-edge AI chip on Earth.
AMD1969—7/10MI300X, ROCm — the credible challenger.
Broadcom1991—7/10Networking silicon for every hyperscaler. Tomahawk switches, custom XPUs.
Arm1990—6/10Architecture under every phone + edge device.
Arista Networks2004—5/10Data-center Ethernet. The anti-InfiniBand bet for AI clusters.
SMIC2000—5/10China's foundry champion, shipping 7nm without EUV.
Corning1851—4/10Fiber optic cable for sea-cable and data-center builds. 170-year-old picks-and-shovels.
Lightmatter2017—4/10Optical interconnect — photonic compute fabrics. Cluster-scale bet.
Tenstorrent2016—4/10Jim Keller’s RISC-V AI chips. Open-source ISA bet.

What happened here (22 events)

YearEventMagnitudeWhat happened
1968Intel founded2The company that will miss the AI wave it enabled. (Intel)
1987TSMC founded3The silent kingmaker of every AI chip era. (TSMC)
1993NVIDIA founded3Gaming GPU company accidentally builds the AI stack. (NVIDIA)
2006CUDA released3General-purpose GPU compute — the sleeper hit. (NVIDIA)
2016Google TPU v12First mainstream AI ASIC. (Google Cloud)
2020NVIDIA acquires Mellanox ($6.9B)2Networking = new moat. InfiniBand fabrics the AI era. (NVIDIA)
2023NVIDIA H100 ramps3$30K a chip. Everyone is allocation-starved. (NVIDIA)
2024NVIDIA Blackwell (B200)2The H100 successor. Trillion-param models in reach. (NVIDIA)
2024NVIDIA becomes $3T company3Briefly the world’s most valuable company. Picks-and-shovels wins again. (NVIDIA)
2025Groq + Cerebras land enterprise1Inference-cost war starts. NVIDIA still training king. (Groq)
2025Huawei Ascend 910C ships at scale2US export controls backfire — China builds a domestic GPU supply chain in 3 years. (Huawei (HiSilicon))
2025Broadcom Tomahawk 6 / Arista 7800 AI Spine ship1Ethernet-first AI fabric. NVIDIA Spectrum-X gets real competition. (Broadcom)
2026Blackwell Ultra + Rubin previews2Annual cadence locked in. Memory bandwidth is the new moat. (NVIDIA)
2026Vera Rubin enters full production2Blackwell's successor in full production; RTX Spark pitches agents-at-home. (NVIDIA)
2026Qualcomm buys Modular to fight CUDA2$3.9B for Mojo + MAX — buying the hardware-agnostic layer because silicon without a dev stack does not sell. (Qualcomm)
2026NVIDIA books an $81.6B quarter1Revenue up 85%, data center up 92% — the boom's most expensive routine earnings beat. (NVIDIA)
2026Your Transformer Can Hold Two Thoughts at Once: Evidence of Linear Superposition in LLMs1While Large Language Models (LLMs) rely on highly non-linear components, in this work we demonstrate that they exhibit fundamental linear...
2026SLCA-GRPO: Resolving Cross-Segment Credit Misattribution in Tool-Calling RL1Tool-calling agents produce heterogeneous outputs, interleaving structured tool invocations with user-facing natural language summaries. ...
2026Softmax Reparameterization for Output-Head Quantization1Large vocabularies make output heads a substantial inference cost in small language models. We propose softmax reparameterization, a post...
2026LightMIS: Ultra-Lightweight Medical Image Segmentation Without a Stage-Wise Decoder1We present LightMIS, a scalable family of ultra-lightweight convolutional networks for 2D binary medical image segmentation without a lea...
2026When Do Model Internals Help? Exploring the Role of Representation Engineering in LLM Safety1Reliable AI safeguards require both control mechanisms that reduce unsafe behavior and monitoring mechanisms that detect safety risks dur...
2026Nereus: Adaptive Parallelism for LLM Post-Training1Reinforcement learning (RL) post-training for large language models (LLMs) coordinates multiple models across generation, inference, and ...

Claims that rest on this layer

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